Kashmir Terrorist Attack and Suspension of Indus Water Agreement by India Can Start Next Indo-Pak War.
In a terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Kashmir on 22 April, 2025, twenty-six non-Muslim tourists were killed and at least twenty injured. There has been world-wide condemnation of the attack. UK MP Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi echoed the Sikh British community reaction when he condemned this horrendous act in the Parliament.
There are eyewitness accounts that the terrorists segregated the victims based on their ability to recite Islamic verses before executing them at close range. However, before reacting along religious lines, the media, and especially the Indian media, need to also highlight the fact that the ordinary people of Kashmir villages and towns, mostly Muslims themselves, have risen against this horrible act in the name of religion. No matter what their political views about the Indo-Pak conflict over Kashmir, the people are of Kashmir are united against such fanaticism.
Reports suggest that an extremist organisation called the Resistance Front group, linked to the Pakistani organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba, has claimed responsibility. Indian Prime Minister Modi has announced strong retaliatory measures.
For the first time, India has suspended the World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 that ensures water for 80% of Pakistani farms. This can threaten agriculture and energy supply and have very serious consequences for the people of Pakistan. According to Christian Wagner, senior fellow at the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin the Indus is a red line for Pakistan.
Once again, this incident has high-lighted the longstanding dispute between India and Pakistan going on since 1947. The region can become a flashpoint for a major war in South-East Asia. According to experts, the current situation is one of the most serious escalations in years. India and Pakistan, both armed with nuclear weapons, are on the brink of war.
Prime Minister Modi is under public pressure to take decisive action.
Retired IAS, KBS Sidhu, argues that, when, as a result of Indian suspension of Indus water agreement, as shortages bite, Pakistan&rsquos canal colonies will quarrel, Sindh against Punjab, upper Punjab against lower Punjab, and Balochistan resentful of them all. Islamabad, financially ruined and diplomatically isolated, will return to the table. India, if it then chooses to engage, will negotiate from a position of unambiguous strength. That is presented as part of the morally compelling argument for unilateral suspension by India of the Indus Water Treaty.
However, the above course of action by India can have negative consequences which India would be well-advised to consider seriously. The people of neighbouring Pakistan will starve and suffer. There may be serious consequences for the people of Panjab on both sides and law and order disturbances are likely. They are farmers as well as the defenders of their respective nations. Panjabis have most to lose.
According to experts, India does not have the kind of immediate infrastructure to halt the waterflows, especially during flood times, so this period creates a crucial window for Pakistan to address the inefficiencies in its water sector. Let us hope so. The ordinary people should not suffer for the mistakes of politicians on both sides. Escalation which compels Pakistan to use nuclear weapons will be disastrous for both countries.
The Indus Water treaty was not affected by the four wars between India and Pakistan since in 1947. The suspension this time sets a dangerous precedent. The long-standing conflict now has a new context.
Let us hope, sense prevails on both sides.
Gurmukh Singh OBE
Principal Civil Servant retd (UK)
E-mail: sewauk2005@yahoo.co.uk
Sikh ideology articles: https://www.sikhmissionarysociety.org/