India Ignores Trump and Expands Trade With Russia In a Multipolar World
India has defied President Trump and done what is in the best trade interest of India. Indian trade deal with Russia has also boosted Indian geo-political position. President Putin has promised uninterrupted shipments of fuel to India at low prices and much more. According to an Indian agency ICRA, in the first two years of Ukraine war, India saved $13 billion on its energy bill. All this is happening when India is under heavy U.S. pressure to stop buying oil from Russia.
India is regarded as a democracy by the West but is increasingly aligning with authoritarian regimes. That position can send mixed signals, is opportunistic and not unlike that of the US under Trump. It can have its own risks in the long run. However, this time it seems President Trump has been trumped himself! He has been beaten at own game by India in which trade benefits come above alliances and principles.
These are not good news for Ukraine. A peace deal has been further delayed even if many thought that it is heavily biased in favour of Russia and would not have been acceptable to Ukraine or Europe. The complex strategy followed by Trump, which keeps all concerned in suspense, has weakened Ukrainian and European negotiating position.
On the plus side, India and China have jointly opposed continual Russian nuclear threats and urged de-escalation. Russian dependence on these two countries exposes a weakness and Putin is compelled to listen to them. He assured PM Modi that Russia is a reliable supplier of oil, gas, coal, and everything that is required for the development of India. The desire to please India also exposes Russian dependence on India (and China) and can be interpreted as a weakness.
Yet, China and India have own border disputes and do not trust each other. Worsening Pakistan and India relations impact on India and China relations also because China has been supporting Pakistan with weapons. In the circumstances, India would be reluctant to attack Pakistan too soon despite recent Pakistani provocations.
President Trump himself has been sending confusing signals about US role in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and causing division in NATO alliance between Europe and the US. The impression gained is that the Western countries are no longer in control of global geo-politics.
US National Security Strategy (NSS) paper published recently, aims to improve relations with Russia and to re-establish strategic stability with Russia. The strategy paper also makes clear that the big problem faced by Europe is not Russia, but civilisational erasure due to mass immigration.
So, world geo-politics have entered a new era and we live in a multipolar world. Global power is no longer in the hands of Western countries led by the US. There is a rift between the US and the European countries while countries like China, India and Russia are playing the geo-political game according to own interests. In this complex global situation, there is potential for both cooperation and conflict as existing international rules get continually challenged and adapted.
We live in a highly volatile global situation today. Over twenty-five million Sikhs are spread far and wide. Their strength lies in their powerful ideology which unites them and, once understood, makes them desirable citizens of most countries. Their weakness is in dysfunctional central institutions resulting in internal divisions and massive waste of community resources.
The rapidly changing global scene demands constant watch, analysis and steer by community mentors and scholars.
Gurmukh Singh OBE
E-mail: sewauk2005@yahoo.co.uk
https://www.sikhiwiki.org/index.php/Gurmukh_Singh_OBE